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Abdulazeez Abubakar
2 weeks ago
Overview
Nigeria eyes stronger Q2 2025 growth amid non-oil expansion
Nigeria’s economy is projected to record stronger growth in the second quarter of 2025, with analysts forecasting real GDP expansion between 3.2 per cent and 3.9 per cent, outpacing the 3.13 per cent growth in the first quarter of 2025 and the corresponding period of 2024.
The outlook reflects improved macroeconomic stability, a rebased GDP framework, and sustained expansion across financial services, telecommunications, and industrial sectors.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the official second quarter GDP report later this month, but early indicators suggest the economy built on the momentum recorded in the first quarter.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of business activity, averaged 52.2 points in the second quarter, compared with 51.3 in the first quarter of 2025 and 48.0 in second quarter of 2024, underscoring stronger expansion in private sector output.
Samuel Oyekanmi, Head of Research at Norrenberg, said the Nigerian economy is well positioned to sustain its recovery.
“We expect GDP growth to print between 3.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, driven largely by the non-oil economy and improved sectoral tracking following the rebasing exercise,” Oyekanmi noted.
Similarly, Damilare Asimiyu, Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa, forecast growth between 3.2 per cent and 3.9 per cent, highlighting the robust non-oil sector which is projected to expand by 4.1 per cent–4.6 per cent.
“The oil economy will likely post a modest 2.0 per cent–2.6 per cent gain, reflecting flat crude output of 1.48mbpd and softer oil prices averaging $68.70 per barrel, down from $73.66 in the first quarter,” Asimiyu said, adding that global demand has been dampened by the “Trump tariff effect.”
Non-Oil Economy: Services remain the main growth driver. Banking and insurance have gained from recapitalisation efforts, while telecoms activity has been buoyed by tariff liberalisation.
The industrial sector is also on track for modest improvement, expected to grow 3.6 per cent in the second quarter versus 3.4 per cent in the first quarter, supported by easing inflation and relative forex stability.
Oil Sector: Growth remains subdued as production stagnated around 1.48mbpd, limiting revenue gains.
Agriculture: Output is expected to remain below its long-term average of 3 per cent due to persistent insecurity in key food-producing states such as Benue and Plateau.
Prof. David Adonri, Vice Chairman at Highcap Securities, argued that the macroeconomic environment has reinforced growth prospects.
“Considering moderating inflation, stable currency, and rising foreign reserves, GDP is expected to have recorded stronger growth in Q2 2025,” Adonri said.
The quarter benefited from lower fuel prices, which reduced operating costs for businesses and helped moderate inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) delivered a 13.54 per cent gain in the second quarter, its strongest since early 2024, reflecting renewed investor confidence.
The naira also traded within a relatively narrow band throughout the quarter, offering relief to manufacturers and import-dependent firms, while foreign reserves recorded mild accretion.
https://blueprint.ng/nigeria-eyes-stronger-q2-2025-growth-amid-non-oil-expansion/
